Aerospace: “Airbus’s Chinese rival narrows the gap further”

The rise of the Chinese aircraft manufacturer COMAC is a clear signal of the tensions ahead in the global aerospace industry. Beyond the commercial battle emerging between Airbus, Boeing, and the new Chinese entrant, another, more discreet competition is taking place: access to critical components. In an industry where each aircraft integrates several thousand parts, the industrial hierarchy is being reshaped less by order books than by the ability to secure engines, avionics, hydraulic systems, or composite materials.

Immediate Opportunity and Deferred Threat

At this stage, COMAC remains largely a domestic player. Its flagship aircraft, the C919, has not yet obtained the international certifications (FAA, EASA) required to compete with Airbus and Boeing in global markets. China’s domestic air traffic—the second-largest aviation market in the world—represents its primary launch platform.

For Europe, this rise presents a dual reality. In the short term, it is an opportunity: still dependent on foreign suppliers for nearly 40% of its critical systems, COMAC contributes to the growth of European champions such as Safran, Thales, and Liebherr. The ramp-up of C919 production mechanically translates into additional volumes for these industrial players.

In the medium term, however, it becomes a strategic threat. If COMAC captures a significant share of domestic Chinese aviation growth, Airbus could see its privileged access to the Chinese market diminish, despite the advantage of its Tianjin final assembly line. More importantly, Beijing is pursuing a clear strategy of technological substitution. The current dependency represents a window of opportunity—but one that will eventually close.

The Triggering Factor: Obtaining International Certifications

The real turning point will come when the C919 obtains EASA or FAA certification. Within the next decade, such recognition would open access for COMAC to emerging markets: Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America. These are regions where Airbus currently dominates the single-aisle segment, but where airlines—highly sensitive to costs—could shift toward COMAC, especially as Beijing often links commercial contracts with financing under the Belt and Road Initiative.

A Paradoxical Dynamic for European Suppliers

International certification would stimulate volumes and order backlogs for suppliers. But it also raises the risk of industrial saturation. In a scenario where Airbus, Boeing, and COMAC simultaneously increase production rates, some suppliers would have to arbitrate how they allocate their production capacity. Airbus, despite its status as a long-standing customer, could find itself in direct competition with a Chinese market backed by political considerations. Control over European industrial capacity would then become a key variable of competitiveness.

Local Preference: Strategic Lever or Boomerang?

Some observers advocate a “local preference” strategy: prioritizing engines, avionics, and critical systems for Western aircraft manufacturers. To some extent, this already exists de facto, with Airbus and Boeing benefiting from long-standing relationships with their suppliers. COMAC remains a secondary customer, dependent on technology choices imposed by its partners.

However, an explicit blocking policy would be counterproductive. It would accelerate China’s drive to develop sovereign supply chains, resulting in a permanent loss of market share for European manufacturers. Beijing is already investing heavily: the CJ-1000A engine is under development, even if it has not yet reached the required reliability standards; research into composites is progressing rapidly; and national avionics programs are emerging. Every trade tension fuels this substitution strategy.

The challenge, therefore, is not to “constrain” COMAC, but to manage capacity scarcity intelligently. European aircraft manufacturers must work with their suppliers to secure critical allocations, diversify sourcing, and strengthen their overall resilience.

Read the original article in french: Aéronautique : « Le rival chinois d’Airbus comble un peu plus son retard » | Les Echos