The Strait of Hormuz: The Final Nail in the Coffin of a Supply Chain in Need of Reinvention

The recent blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—a critical chokepoint for global energy trade—is not just another crisis. It is a revealing symptom of a deep and inevitable transformation in global supply chains.

After decades of relentless pursuit of fluidity and cost-cutting, the supply chain model inherited from the 1980s has become obsolete in an era of chronic instability. Yves Guillo, a supply chain expert at EFESO Management Consultants, deciphers this structural rupture.

 

The End of an Era: From Stability to Chronic Instability

The perception of a broadly stable world, which underpinned the architecture of our logistics networks for nearly 40 years, has collapsed for good. While the COVID-19 crisis in 2020 was the first shock, others followed. A relentless succession of geopolitical, climatic, and cybersecurity risks has accelerated our entry into a decade—or more—of uncertainty.

“We are moving from the age of dinosaurs to the age of mammals, and people don’t even realize it. This change is happening in complete silence, but it is fundamental: logistics, which underpins the entire global economy, must transform—not just evolve—and integrate major transformation decisions,” warns Yves Guillo.

The Strait of Hormuz thus represents just another nail in the coffin of the old supply chain model—one built solely on fluidity and cost compression. The rise of China, the end of NATO as we knew it, tensions over Taiwan, conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, and the intensification of major climate events are shaping a landscape where variability is the new norm. Supply chains must now operate within this chronic instability.

 

Reinventing Supply Chain Logistics

With freight rates capable of surging by over 120%, the survival of industrial margins now depends directly on a radical optimization of transport. The goal is to make every shipment profitable by maximizing load factors and aligning transport costs with the value of the goods.

Guillo outlines several concrete levers to pull, starting with the adoption of “slow logistics.”

“Easing the flow allows carriers to consolidate shipments more easily. This approach can generate up to 20% savings on transport costs,” he explains. The focus shifts from frantic reactivity to long-term planning.

Next, fragmented shipments must be reduced. In a context of soaring freight costs, insufficient load factors are unacceptable. This can be complemented by transport pooling. By developing partnerships with local players, carriers can group goods, optimize vehicle fill rates, and revise delivery frequencies to improve logistical efficiency.

Practically, product ranges should also be simplified. Rigorous segmentation of customer and product portfolios allows companies to focus on high-value references (Class A) and question the existence or handling of low-turnover items (Class C). This avoids unnecessary transport and maximizes volumes for strategic products.

 

Inventory Management: From Just-in-Time to Targeted Resilience

The Just-in-Time (JIT) model, a cornerstone of cost optimization for decades, has become a major vulnerability. However, the solution does not lie in excessive stockpiling, which would create unsustainable cash and financial tie-ups. The key is smart, targeted inventory management.

Concrete industrial strategies to secure critical flows include targeted safety stocks.

“We need to prioritize and apply this only to critical stocks, because resilience doesn’t necessarily mean higher costs tied to generalized storage,” the expert clarifies.

Through multisourcing, companies diversify their supply sources to reduce dependence on a single supplier or geographic area. This strategy is realistic and accessible to businesses of all sizes, including SMEs—unlike relocation, which remains a challenge for smaller structures.

With rerouting, companies anticipate potential disruptions in major flows. This involves identifying vulnerable flows, preparing backup routes, and establishing contracts with new transport players. If necessary, the company can quickly switch from Route A to Route B.

 

The Ecosystem at the Heart of Strategy: Connectivity and Data

The most profound transformation lies in shifting the center of optimization. The era of localized, company-centric optimization is over—the focus must now be on the global ecosystem. The competitiveness of each player will depend on the competitiveness of the entire network: suppliers, customers, and carriers.

This requires data sharing to establish protocols and platforms that enable information exchange across the ecosystem. It’s a major challenge, involving data sovereignty and industrial security concerns, but it’s a non-negotiable condition for success.

This sharing demands the development of control centers that extend beyond a single company, integrating data from the entire network through ecosystem control towers powered by AI.

Artificial intelligence will play a crucial role in processing vast amounts of data. AI must detect weak signals, anticipate the spread of disruptive events, and model their impact across the entire value chain.

By 2035, Yves Guillo envisions a supply chain with shorter chains, driven by the end of “happy globalization” and the rise of major economic blocs. Relocation within these blocs will be a strong trend, requiring deep integration and coordination among actors.

 

The Skills of Tomorrow’s Supply Chain Leader

Faced with these transformations, supply chain professionals must reinvent themselves. The key skills needed to become an effective risk manager—and simply to “survive”—are as follows:

The foundation, according to the expert, remains a philosophical mastery of supply chain. Beyond technical expertise, it’s about understanding its purpose, strategic role, and interactions with all business functions (production, procurement, sales).

This must be paired with crisis management and decision-making under uncertainty.

“A supply chain director must be able to handle pressure, stay calm, and make decisions without having all the data—which is the daily reality in an unstable world,” he emphasizes. This is a critical mental skill.

Equally important is strategic vision and the ability to communicate it. As supply chain becomes increasingly strategic, its leaders must be able to project a vision and gain buy-in at the highest levels, including the executive committee.

Mastery of new technologies completes these essential skills. The integration and exploitation of digitalization, AI, and data analytics are now indispensable. The goal isn’t to fear them but to approach them confidently and competently.

Those who successfully transition to an ecosystem-based model—built on data sharing, AI, and reimagined flows—will be the leaders of tomorrow. The rest risk becoming the “dinosaurs” of this new era.